Wednesday, September 26, 2012
A Word to the Daily Poll Watchers
I am not much of a poll watcher until after the debates when the candidates have had their last big shot at appealing to voters. The winner and loser does not usually become solidified until then. There is no point in paying much attention to polling prior to the debates accept to analyze the successes and failures of the respective campaigns. Even that is more of a concern for the campaigns themselves, but the polls around this time can show candidates’ supporters which way they need to prod their guy towards victory. For whatever influence said supporters actually have. I am in deep red South Carolina where Mitt Romney cannot lose and Barack Obama cannot win. Neither one o them cares what anyone in the palmetto state thinks. Perhaps you are in the same bright red or blue situation. The circumstances do give you a certain distance from the election as a whole. The primaries are the last close up glimpse of the presidential race we get remember Newt Gingrich running away with South Carolina/ That was a long time ago. With that in mind, appreciate high emotions regarding the campaign have given way to detached observation of reality in everything else I am going to write here. Embrace the fact that polls are largely accurate. Romney and Obama are virtually tied in the national polls. National polls are a soft indicator, however. It is the swing state polls that really matter in a relatively even matched election like this one, and those show Obama with an advantage. Stop claiming that the methodology is biased or looking at ’alternate polls that show who reallyis in the lead.. look at the facts instead. Romney is not being aggressive enough. He appears to be under the impression the economy is so bad, no one in a zillion, kajillion years would reelect Obama, but he is wrong. Romny cannot rely on the media to hold Obama’s feet to the fire, either. The only serious grilling Obama has gotten since the Brett Bair interview years ago was the Spanish language Univision last week that virtually no one other than Hispanics voting for Obama regardless of his answers saw. But media bias is not as huge a factor as conservatives would like to believe. People know not to trust the media. No matter how much the press has pounded Romney over the last couple weeks, he is still competitive. But he needs to come out swinging. Poll watchers need to stop rationalizing why Romney appears to be behind, realize he is, and start encouraging him to take off the kid gloves. The intellectual dance many conservatives are wasting their time with in rationalizing losing polls reminds me of the desperate way conservatives clung to the mythical Bradley Effect in 2008 that supposedly meant John McCain was really in the lead. It is just those being polled were saying Obama so as not to appear racist to some anonymous pollster who might--gasp--judge them otherwise. If conservatives keep wasting time with the fantasy of sinister, progressive forces attempting to demoralize republicans into staying home on Election Day with “fake” polls showing an Obama landslide, then an Obama landslide is going to happen with out any conspiracy afoot.