Predictions for the South Carolina Primary

Ironically, the outcome my home state’s primary is the most difficult thus far to predict. It has been a crazy week in which we have been inundated with political ads both by candidates and from special interests groups acting on their behalf 9for whatever that is worth) results changing in Iowa, candidates dropping out, big endorsements, and lots of weird issues coming up. It has been an embarrassing spectacle. Here are my best guesses how it will turn out:

1. Newt Gingrich
2. Mitt Romney
3. Ron Paul
4. Rick Santorum

Predicting the winner is a tough call, but I am giving the edge to Gingrich. If Gingrich wins, South Carolina will likely break a 32 year streak of always selecting the eventual Republican nominee. We have been so proud of that record, we even made John McCain the winner in 2008 after smacking him around so badly in the 200 primary he blasted evangelical voters all the way to Super Tuesday. Romney looks even more inevitable as the nominee in 2012 than did McCain in 2008, but Gingrich’s witty debate performances combined with his attacks on Obama resonate here. Truth be told, a Gingrich victory may propel him to nomination and keep the streak alive. You never know until all the votes are counted.

Romney has had problems in south carolina from the get go. Tea party darling Gov. Nikki Haley endorsed him in the middle of an ethics scandal for her to deflect attention, but it has wound up not doing much for either of them. A lot of advertisements have emphasized the similarities between ObamaCare and RomneyCare. ObamaCare is not only extremely unpopular here, but Haley’s ethics trouble involve an alleged cover up of her influencing an advisory board to reject implementation of healthcare reform. There is a general feel that Haley is ignoring Romney’s healthcare reform in order to make the short list for his running mate. Then we realize she is doing that because he is a boring, progressive yankee who needs an attractive woman on the ticket, which makes him look even worse.

His debate performance have gone badly for him. We like red meat, and what we have gotten is a lot of fumbling around over releasing his tax returns. We do not like candidates who look weak. His wavering on whether he will debate in florida will have the unintended consequence. Some will think he is arrogant, other chicken. The announcement Romney actually lost Iowa gives him an air of loser, too. The results will be closes because some blue blood ol guard hold onto the idea only he can beat Obama, but I do not think he can win South Carolina.

I have never expected Ron Paul to do well here, but I have him coming in third. It is not so much that Paul has virtues, but it is that Santorum will not do well. I know I have a lot of Santorum fans among my readers, but as Paul noted, he is very thin skinned and whiny. That does not resonate down here. I do not think the evangelical endorsement will do much, either. We are the buckle of the Bible Belt, but we go about it very much in our own way.

For the record, I am supporting Gingrich. I still believe Romney will be the nominee, if for no other reason than most of the post-South Carolina contests look more favorable to Romney. Gingrich is not even on the ballot in a half dozen or so. But I want to vote for someone more conservative than Romney so I can say I did not contribute to his nomination. I appreciate his grandiose ideas far more than Santorum’s wimpy attitude. My support for Gingrich has not influenced my prediction he will win the primary.