Think Newt can rally in Florida like he did in SC w/o another debate?No fair. You are going to make me preview my Florida primary predictions a day early. Spoilsport.
I am more skeptical Newt Gingrich can win Florida than I was a week ago. There was a genuine distaste for Mitt Romney in South Carolina, so much so we were willing to risk our 30 year streak of the eventual nominee always winning the South Carolina primary, because we did not like Romney. Gingrich became the beneficiary because he has staked his fortunes in conservative southern states and we liked his combativeness in the debates. Florida obviously has a different mood. The wealthy snowbirds appear to be more moderates down there.
I imagine the ’boosts” of the tea Party endorsement and Herman Cain’s support are probably things gingrich would have had going for him anyway. Rick Santorum does not generate much excitement among the Tea Partiers and cain voters are natural gingrich voters even without his blessing. If the Tea Partiers and the Cainiacs can be credited as a surprise factor that puts Gingrich over the top tomorrow rather than making up the base of support that still has him trailing Romney now, it would be a genuine surprise.
Nevertheless, I do not expect a huge blowout by Romney. I hate to sound conspiratorial, but I feel like any news about Romney is being presented in the best possible light light. The GOP establishment wants him as the nominee. For whatever reason, the Democrats do, too. Maybe they think conservatives will stay home on Election day rather than vote for another moderate like John McCain or Bob Dole. That only means that Gingrich is probably going to do better than is generally assumed. Winning Florida is another matter. I am just not sure how reliably conservative florida Republicans are.
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