Formspring Question #314--Red State/Blue State Rehash Edition

Most see the possible contest between Obama and Romney in 2012 as being a very close election, likely w/ only a few tie-breaker states making the difference one way or the other. Do you think that Gingrich can fare as well (or better) against Obama?

I expect a repeat of the 2000/2004 map regardless of whether the GOP nominates Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich. I do not see how either Romney or Gingrich will turn a blue states red. Romney is not going to win Massachusetts or Michigan, which are the two blue states to which he has the most personal ties, much less any other. On the other side, Barack Obama is not likely to win reliably red states like Virginia and north Carolina like he did in 2008.

Some swing state like Florida, Colorado, and New Hampshire is going to make all the difference.

Of course, all of this assumes the status quo is maintained all the way through Election Day. The economy could turn around, which would ensure a victory for Obama. A huge scandal could erupt having the exact opposite effect. The GOP nominee could implode for various and sundry reasons. But honestly, we are such a partisan people these days, virtually none of those factors would make a significant difference. The race would still come down to a handful of swing states. Maybe even one of them.